勝ち馬を探すな!【桜星男の単勝A】 2008/06/19配信分

 コンピ指標の最初は、コンピ1位と2位の指数を合計した【S12】です。
このS12が高ければ「一騎打ち状態」に近いレースパターンとなります。

 

 ちなみに私はレースパターンの基本型として、いつも一騎打ちをイメージし
ています。なぜならば「この2頭で堅い」というレースでもその2頭で馬連が
決まるのは最高でも50%程度であり、この事実はオカルトなどの穴馬券を
買うに際して、非常に大きな勇気を与え続けてくれるからです。

 

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------
☆ S12(一騎打ち指数) 多頭数(出走頭数15〜18頭)

 

  【指数分類、単複連表など】         
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 当分の間使用するデータは、
指数統一後3年間(2005年4月〜2008年3月:y31)
 とします。

 

●重要表 (S12指数帯ごとのコンピ各順位の単複連率)
y31_1518_s12TRF
単勝率,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18
159_166,36,27,9,7,5,5,3,2,2,1,1,1,0,1,0,0,0,0
153_158,36,20,13,9,5,4,3,2,2,1,1,1,0,1,0,0,0,0
145_152,29,17,13,10,8,6,4,3,2,2,2,1,1,1,0,0,0,1
138_144,20,17,14,11,9,7,6,3,3,2,2,2,2,1,1,0,2,0
131_137,14,15,13,9,7,10,5,6,5,7,3,1,1,0,1,1,0,0
複勝率,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18
159_166,76,63,32,25,24,19,15,11,10,7,7,5,2,3,2,0,0,0
153_158,69,53,40,31,24,19,14,12,10,8,5,5,3,3,2,2,2,1
145_152,60,46,40,32,25,22,17,13,12,9,8,5,4,3,2,2,1,1
138_144,47,41,41,30,28,24,21,16,12,9,8,7,6,3,3,2,4,3
131_137,41,37,35,32,23,26,23,18,14,20,8,7,5,3,5,3,0,0
連対率,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18
159_166,64,48,18,15,13,10,8,6,5,3,4,2,1,1,1,0,0,0

153_158,56,38,27,19,14,11,8,7,6,4,3,3,2,2,1,1,2,0
145_152,47,34,27,20,16,14,10,8,6,5,5,3,2,2,1,1,1,1
138_144,37,31,28,21,18,16,13,9,7,6,4,5,3,2,2,1,2,1
131_137,29,25,26,21,17,21,12,12,9,14,6,3,2,1,3,2,0,0

 

 

 ますは上記表の該当範囲をコピーしてメモ帳に貼り付け、それをエクセル
に取り込んでください。

 

 1〜18の数字はコンピ順位を示しています。

 

 S12はコンピ1位2位の合計指数です。最大値は166、最小値は131
です。指数範囲は1位2位の入着率から以下のように分類しました。

 

(1)159〜166 
(2)153〜158
(3)145〜152
(4)138〜144
(5)131〜137

 

 ここに至るまでには様々な集計データがある訳ですが、それは後ろに回して
手っ取り早くポイントをまとめます。

 

(1)はS12の最高指数帯で一騎打ちかそれに近い状態。1位・2位指数が
 82・80(一騎打ち)や90・70(1本かぶりに近い一騎打ち)など。

 

(2)複勝率で3位4位がそれぞれ8PT、6PTアップしている。他の順位
 には特に変動なし。

 

(3)S12の指数が更に1段低下しても意外な事に3位4位に変動なし。
 複勝率は6位以下がアップ。

 

(4)3位4位に変動なし。
 複勝率は5位以下がアップ。

 

(5)3位が低下。
 複勝率は6位以下がアップ。

 

 というところでしょうか。全体的な流れを複勝率で追うと、S12が下が
ると1位2位の入着率が低下して行きますがその減った分は一騎打ちの下の
レベル(2)で3位4位に分配され、(3)以降は5位以下へ分配されると
いったイメージになります。

 

 注意したいのは3位と4位で、1位2位が弱くなれば3位4位の出番と考
えるのが当然の思考なのですが、S12が一段落ちた(2)では3位4位の
入着率はその通り上がります。ところが更に落ちた(3)以降は実は、3位
4位の入着率に変わりは無いというのが事実となります。

 

 1位2位の信頼度が低いからそれでは3位4位あたりを軸にしよう、とい
う一般的な考えはあまり正しくは無い、と私には思えますがどうでしょうか。

 

 (2)(一騎打ちから一段指数が落ちた状態)での3位4位の単勝はなか
なか優秀で、単勝率22%回収率93%の持ち点があります。このパターン
において3位4位に好走理由がある馬を見つけて単勝を買って行けば勝ちに
近づくかもしれません。

 

 

 以下、集計表の元となったデータです。

 

●S12 159〜166のコンピ各順位成績
y31_1518_s12ov159
NC,頭数,1着,2着,3着,単配,単率,単回,複配,複率,複回,連率
1,390,142,109,44,207.6,0.36,0.76,119.2,0.76,0.9,0.64
2,391,106,83,57,352.3,0.27,0.95,138.4,0.63,0.87,0.48
3,391,37,35,55,749.2,0.09,0.71,218.6,0.32,0.71,0.18
4,390,26,33,39,1165.8,0.07,0.78,283.4,0.25,0.71,0.15
5,391,20,30,45,1469,0.05,0.75,340.3,0.24,0.83,0.13
6,391,18,20,36,1869.4,0.05,0.86,424.3,0.19,0.8,0.1
7,389,11,20,26,2987.3,0.03,0.84,497,0.15,0.73,0.08
8,391,6,16,20,3810,0.02,0.58,641.4,0.11,0.69,0.06
9,389,6,15,17,5448.3,0.02,0.84,886.8,0.1,0.87,0.05
10,390,5,5,16,3818,0.01,0.49,938.1,0.07,0.63,0.03
11,390,4,13,12,8590,0.01,0.88,1579.7,0.07,1.17,0.04
12,390,5,4,10,8146,0.01,1.04,1316.3,0.05,0.64,0.02
13,391,1,4,1,14750,0,0.38,2060,0.02,0.32,0.01

14,389,3,2,8,23000,0.01,1.77,3128.5,0.03,1.05,0.01
15,390,1,1,5,10200,0,0.26,1715.7,0.02,0.31,0.01
16,279,0,1,0,0,0,0,2500,0,0.09,0
17,62,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
18,52,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0

 

●S12 153〜158のコンピ各順位成績
y31_1518_s12th153158
NC,頭数,1着,2着,3着,単配,単率,単回,複配,複率,複回,連率
1,1488,531,302,200,221.2,0.36,0.79,124.5,0.69,0.86,0.56
2,1489,303,261,229,435.8,0.2,0.89,160.5,0.53,0.86,0.38
3,1483,193,208,188,695.3,0.13,0.9,209.6,0.4,0.83,0.27
4,1488,138,148,179,1023.3,0.09,0.95,260.9,0.31,0.82,0.19
5,1488,78,133,148,1329.6,0.05,0.7,328.1,0.24,0.79,0.14
6,1489,57,106,118,1845.3,0.04,0.71,403.2,0.19,0.76,0.11
7,1485,51,75,88,2071.2,0.03,0.71,481.9,0.14,0.69,0.08
8,1490,31,66,76,2519.7,0.02,0.52,660.9,0.12,0.77,0.07
9,1487,35,47,64,3406.6,0.02,0.8,799.7,0.1,0.79,0.06
10,1487,22,38,59,5686.4,0.01,0.84,969.2,0.08,0.78,0.04
11,1490,15,25,34,9902.7,0.01,1,1211.6,0.05,0.6,0.03
12,1488,13,30,34,7996.2,0.01,0.7,1181,0.05,0.61,0.03
13,1489,6,18,23,10861.7,0,0.44,1402.8,0.03,0.44,0.02

14,1483,10,18,22,11108,0.01,0.75,2029.4,0.03,0.68,0.02
15,1487,6,7,15,9221.7,0,0.37,2326.1,0.02,0.44,0.01
16,1151,2,7,12,13950,0,0.24,2749,0.02,0.5,0.01
17,243,1,3,2,5980,0,0.25,1790,0.02,0.44,0.02
18,194,0,0,1,0,0,0,1340,0.01,0.07,0

 

●S12 145〜152のコンピ各順位成績
y31_1518_s12th145152
NC,頭数,1着,2着,3着,単配,単率,単回,複配,複率,複回,連率
1,2499,725,453,330,273.5,0.29,0.79,138.4,0.6,0.84,0.47
2,2497,420,428,295,469.6,0.17,0.79,177.5,0.46,0.81,0.34
3,2499,324,349,321,621.8,0.13,0.81,208.9,0.4,0.83,0.27
4,2498,251,249,300,849.9,0.1,0.85,253.8,0.32,0.81,0.2
5,2497,190,220,225,1128.8,0.08,0.86,311.4,0.25,0.79,0.16
6,2498,159,192,201,1384.7,0.06,0.88,373.7,0.22,0.83,0.14
7,2500,109,142,162,1752.3,0.04,0.76,478,0.17,0.79,0.1
8,2498,83,110,141,2371.4,0.03,0.79,584.1,0.13,0.78,0.08
9,2499,59,86,155,3160.8,0.02,0.75,705.5,0.12,0.85,0.06
10,2497,55,71,101,4133.1,0.02,0.91,932.3,0.09,0.85,0.05
11,2498,50,67,77,4865.2,0.02,0.97,1099.7,0.08,0.85,0.05
12,2499,27,39,57,5180.4,0.01,0.56,1204.2,0.05,0.59,0.03
13,2501,15,39,47,6691.3,0.01,0.4,1515.6,0.04,0.61,0.02

14,2495,19,20,44,8660.5,0.01,0.66,2042.2,0.03,0.68,0.02
15,2496,9,20,29,8583.3,0,0.31,2467.4,0.02,0.57,0.01
16,1937,3,16,17,7663.3,0,0.12,2853.6,0.02,0.53,0.01
17,421,2,1,0,10850,0,0.52,1856.7,0.01,0.13,0.01
18,340,3,1,1,11206.7,0.01,0.99,2182,0.01,0.32,0.01

 

●S12 138〜144のコンピ各順位成績
y31_1518_s12th138144
NC,頭数,1着,2着,3着,単配,単率,単回,複配,複率,複回,連率
1,1013,200,172,109,368.8,0.2,0.73,160.9,0.47,0.76,0.37
2,1016,175,135,108,478.9,0.17,0.82,189.5,0.41,0.78,0.31
3,1012,142,139,131,596.2,0.14,0.84,213.1,0.41,0.87,0.28
4,1016,109,101,96,667.1,0.11,0.72,242.2,0.3,0.73,0.21
5,1015,87,97,102,921,0.09,0.79,296.7,0.28,0.84,0.18
6,1012,75,83,86,1053.6,0.07,0.78,331.8,0.24,0.8,0.16
7,1014,63,68,82,1720.6,0.06,1.07,462.7,0.21,0.97,0.13
8,1012,30,59,73,1856,0.03,0.55,544.1,0.16,0.87,0.09
9,1014,34,37,50,2357.1,0.03,0.79,615,0.12,0.73,0.07
10,1015,20,36,40,3099,0.02,0.61,832.1,0.09,0.79,0.06
11,1010,22,22,38,4910.5,0.02,1.07,982.9,0.08,0.8,0.04
12,1014,18,29,27,4747.8,0.02,0.84,1332.7,0.07,0.97,0.05
13,1015,18,13,30,5680,0.02,1.01,1383,0.06,0.83,0.03

14,1014,10,9,14,9232,0.01,0.91,1740.3,0.03,0.57,0.02
15,1013,7,10,15,6631.4,0.01,0.46,2352.5,0.03,0.74,0.02
16,810,3,4,9,9376.7,0,0.35,2516.2,0.02,0.5,0.01
17,190,3,0,4,8276.7,0.02,1.31,1907.1,0.04,0.7,0.02
18,151,0,2,2,0,0,0,3145,0.03,0.83,0.01

 

●S12 131〜137のコンピ各順位成績
y31_1518_s12un137
NC,頭数,1着,2着,3着,単配,単率,単回,複配,複率,複回,連率
1,221,32,32,26,506.9,0.14,0.73,192.4,0.41,0.78,0.29
2,222,33,22,28,495.8,0.15,0.74,212.3,0.37,0.79,0.25
3,222,29,28,21,623.8,0.13,0.81,229.4,0.35,0.81,0.26
4,222,21,26,25,636.2,0.09,0.6,237.4,0.32,0.77,0.21
5,222,16,21,15,911.2,0.07,0.66,295.8,0.23,0.69,0.17
6,222,23,23,12,922.6,0.1,0.96,317.2,0.26,0.83,0.21
7,222,12,15,25,1257.5,0.05,0.68,409.2,0.23,0.96,0.12
8,222,14,12,15,1575,0.06,0.99,458,0.18,0.85,0.12
9,222,11,8,11,2081.8,0.05,1.03,587.7,0.14,0.79,0.09
10,222,15,15,15,3636.7,0.07,2.46,760.9,0.2,1.54,0.14
11,222,6,7,5,2713.3,0.03,0.73,807.8,0.08,0.65,0.06
12,221,3,4,8,2860,0.01,0.39,861.3,0.07,0.58,0.03
13,222,2,3,5,4310,0.01,0.39,1235,0.05,0.56,0.02

14,221,0,2,4,0,0,0,2258.3,0.03,0.61,0.01
15,221,3,3,4,7746.7,0.01,1.05,1937,0.05,0.88,0.03
16,178,2,1,3,2750,0.01,0.31,1940,0.03,0.65,0.02
17,43,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
18,33,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0

 

 

 

●コンピ1位2位のS12別成績
y31_1518_s12nc12
S12,頭数,1着,2着,3着,単配,単率,単回,複配,複率,複回,連率
131,4,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
132,14,2,2,0,475,0.14,0.68,175,0.29,0.5,0.29
133,41,7,7,5,540,0.17,0.92,214.2,0.46,0.99,0.34
134,40,5,8,5,766,0.12,0.96,208.3,0.45,0.94,0.32
135,86,10,10,14,463,0.12,0.54,202.6,0.4,0.8,0.23
136,110,14,11,11,482.9,0.13,0.61,212.2,0.33,0.69,0.23
137,148,27,16,19,467.8,0.18,0.85,191.8,0.42,0.8,0.29
138,130,26,23,12,421.2,0.2,0.84,187.2,0.47,0.88,0.38
139,208,36,29,19,441.7,0.17,0.76,178.1,0.4,0.72,0.31
140,216,50,33,21,433.6,0.23,1,182.2,0.48,0.88,0.38
141,325,48,40,37,427.3,0.15,0.63,177.7,0.38,0.68,0.27
142,309,54,48,39,419.3,0.17,0.73,172.2,0.46,0.79,0.33
143,396,83,57,34,419,0.21,0.88,170.3,0.44,0.75,0.35

144,445,78,77,55,398.8,0.18,0.7,167.4,0.47,0.79,0.35
145,530,118,82,52,380.3,0.22,0.85,164,0.48,0.78,0.38
146,506,109,85,58,380.5,0.22,0.82,165.8,0.5,0.83,0.38
147,524,113,84,68,345.3,0.22,0.74,157.5,0.51,0.8,0.38
148,613,138,107,80,359.1,0.23,0.81,155.8,0.53,0.83,0.4
149,714,174,118,87,354.7,0.24,0.86,155.7,0.53,0.83,0.41
150,668,148,132,93,335.9,0.22,0.74,151.7,0.56,0.85,0.42
151,740,175,138,98,336.1,0.24,0.79,149.5,0.56,0.83,0.42
152,701,170,135,89,296.1,0.24,0.72,149.8,0.56,0.84,0.44
153,677,192,124,91,312.8,0.28,0.89,143.8,0.6,0.86,0.47
154,520,143,101,71,305.5,0.28,0.84,140.2,0.61,0.85,0.47
155,497,138,92,80,301,0.28,0.84,144.4,0.62,0.9,0.46
156,474,144,101,68,303.1,0.3,0.92,139.1,0.66,0.92,0.52
157,445,123,82,71,286.4,0.28,0.79,134.6,0.62,0.83,0.46
158,364,94,63,48,269.7,0.26,0.7,135.6,0.56,0.76,0.43
159,312,89,77,45,271.5,0.29,0.77,131.8,0.68,0.89,0.53

160,167,59,32,23,299.7,0.35,1.06,129.3,0.68,0.88,0.54
161,172,61,47,17,261,0.35,0.93,126,0.73,0.92,0.63
162,126,39,35,15,232.3,0.31,0.72,119.2,0.71,0.84,0.59
163,2,0,1,0,0,0,0,160,0.5,0.8,0.5
166,2,0,0,1,0,0,0,160,0.5,0.8,0

 

●コンピ3位のS12別成績 
y31_1518_s12nc3
S12,頭数,1着,2着,3着,単配,単率,単回,複配,複率,複回,連率
131,2,0,1,0,0,0,0,400,0.5,2,0.5
132,7,0,1,2,0,0,0,263.3,0.43,1.13,0.14
133,21,1,1,2,1230,0.05,0.59,282.5,0.19,0.54,0.1
134,20,6,2,2,605,0.3,1.82,229,0.5,1.14,0.4
135,43,4,9,1,610,0.09,0.57,217.9,0.33,0.71,0.3
136,55,8,1,5,538.8,0.15,0.78,236.4,0.25,0.6,0.16
137,74,10,13,9,648,0.14,0.88,216.2,0.43,0.94,0.31
138,65,6,8,6,685,0.09,0.63,217.5,0.31,0.67,0.22
139,104,14,17,11,627.9,0.13,0.85,220.5,0.4,0.89,0.3
140,108,12,17,15,567.5,0.11,0.63,211.6,0.41,0.86,0.27
141,161,23,20,25,553.9,0.14,0.79,214.7,0.42,0.91,0.27
142,154,21,17,17,691,0.14,0.94,221.1,0.36,0.79,0.25
143,197,34,35,27,570.6,0.17,0.98,209,0.49,1.02,0.35

144,223,32,25,30,571.9,0.14,0.82,207.7,0.39,0.81,0.26
145,264,29,35,45,603.4,0.11,0.66,210.9,0.41,0.87,0.24
146,253,31,33,30,745.8,0.12,0.91,223.5,0.37,0.83,0.25
147,263,33,39,39,565.8,0.13,0.71,208.7,0.42,0.88,0.27
148,305,42,41,36,593.3,0.14,0.82,204.6,0.39,0.8,0.27
149,357,46,65,35,563.9,0.13,0.73,200.7,0.41,0.82,0.31
150,336,47,34,37,621.1,0.14,0.87,208.3,0.35,0.73,0.24
151,370,56,53,59,595.2,0.15,0.9,207.7,0.45,0.94,0.29
152,351,40,49,40,720,0.11,0.82,212.1,0.37,0.78,0.25
153,338,32,47,45,625,0.09,0.59,203.3,0.37,0.75,0.23
154,260,39,45,26,723.3,0.15,1.08,200.5,0.42,0.85,0.32
155,247,35,27,23,728,0.14,1.03,210.6,0.34,0.72,0.25
156,235,29,28,43,626.9,0.12,0.77,201.9,0.43,0.86,0.24
157,222,31,36,26,703.5,0.14,0.98,212.4,0.42,0.89,0.3
158,181,27,25,25,759.6,0.15,1.13,238.3,0.43,1.01,0.29
159,156,19,13,16,665.3,0.12,0.81,211.7,0.31,0.65,0.21

160,84,6,9,11,711.7,0.07,0.51,220.8,0.31,0.68,0.18
161,86,9,6,16,765.6,0.1,0.8,212.3,0.36,0.77,0.17
162,63,3,6,12,1306.7,0.05,0.62,232.4,0.33,0.77,0.14
163,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
166,1,0,1,0,0,0,0,400,1,4,1

 

 

●コンピ4位のS12別成績 
y31_1518_s12nc4
S12,頭数,1着,2着,3着,単配,単率,単回,複配,複率,複回,連率
131,2,1,0,0,760,0.5,3.8,260,0.5,1.3,0.5
132,7,1,1,1,640,0.14,0.91,243.3,0.43,1.04,0.29
133,21,1,2,1,1130,0.05,0.54,280,0.19,0.53,0.14
134,20,2,0,4,710,0.1,0.71,251.7,0.3,0.76,0.1
135,43,5,5,6,550,0.12,0.64,238.1,0.37,0.89,0.23
136,55,4,13,7,505,0.07,0.37,232.1,0.44,1.01,0.31
137,74,7,5,6,662.9,0.09,0.63,227.2,0.24,0.55,0.16
138,65,7,4,8,615.7,0.11,0.66,238.9,0.29,0.7,0.17
139,104,16,14,11,603.1,0.15,0.93,231,0.39,0.91,0.29
140,108,6,10,15,790,0.06,0.44,251.6,0.29,0.72,0.15
141,163,22,16,19,643.6,0.13,0.87,237.4,0.35,0.83,0.23
142,155,18,17,9,623.9,0.12,0.72,235.9,0.28,0.67,0.23
143,198,14,24,20,622.1,0.07,0.44,248.6,0.29,0.73,0.19

144,223,26,16,14,765.8,0.12,0.89,249.6,0.25,0.63,0.19
145,264,36,23,33,817.5,0.14,1.11,260.7,0.35,0.91,0.22
146,253,17,26,33,845.3,0.07,0.57,250.3,0.3,0.75,0.17
147,263,28,34,29,729.3,0.11,0.78,242.1,0.35,0.84,0.24
148,306,26,40,34,725.8,0.08,0.62,242,0.33,0.79,0.22
149,357,33,33,48,1010.6,0.09,0.93,254.6,0.32,0.81,0.18
150,334,41,27,33,895.9,0.12,1.1,266.1,0.3,0.8,0.2
151,371,37,36,46,836.5,0.1,0.83,248.3,0.32,0.8,0.2
152,350,33,30,44,885.2,0.09,0.83,265.1,0.31,0.81,0.18
153,337,31,25,43,941,0.09,0.87,244.7,0.29,0.72,0.17
154,261,26,23,31,984.2,0.1,0.98,269.4,0.31,0.83,0.19
155,249,26,22,22,915.4,0.1,0.96,249,0.28,0.7,0.19
156,237,24,21,28,1078.8,0.1,1.09,239.2,0.31,0.74,0.19
157,221,15,29,25,1216.7,0.07,0.83,283,0.31,0.88,0.2
158,183,16,28,30,1157.5,0.09,1.01,285.4,0.4,1.15,0.24
159,155,14,13,12,1174.3,0.09,1.06,275.4,0.25,0.69,0.17

160,84,5,9,15,1308,0.06,0.78,261.4,0.35,0.9,0.17
161,86,4,6,6,1200,0.05,0.56,299.4,0.19,0.56,0.12
162,63,2,5,6,985,0.03,0.31,341.5,0.21,0.7,0.11
163,1,1,0,0,560,1,5.6,220,1,2.2,1
166,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0

 

 

●コンピ5位6位のS12別成績 
y31_1518_s12nc56
S12,頭数,1着,2着,3着,単配,単率,単回,複配,複率,複回,連率
131,4,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
132,14,2,2,0,895,0.14,1.28,260,0.29,0.74,0.29
133,42,3,2,2,1060,0.07,0.76,351.4,0.17,0.59,0.12
134,40,2,4,2,640,0.05,0.32,295,0.2,0.59,0.15
135,86,10,3,7,734,0.12,0.85,303.5,0.23,0.71,0.15
136,110,9,11,8,1084.4,0.08,0.89,318.2,0.25,0.81,0.18
137,148,13,22,8,957.7,0.09,0.84,300.9,0.29,0.87,0.24
138,128,13,11,12,899.2,0.1,0.91,306.1,0.28,0.86,0.19
139,208,19,16,19,938.4,0.09,0.86,308.1,0.26,0.8,0.17
140,216,17,21,13,910.6,0.08,0.72,289,0.24,0.68,0.18
141,326,24,30,28,879.2,0.07,0.65,309.4,0.25,0.78,0.17
142,310,25,27,32,897.6,0.08,0.72,306.7,0.27,0.83,0.17
143,395,33,33,38,1148.5,0.08,0.96,318.9,0.26,0.84,0.17

144,444,31,42,46,1055.2,0.07,0.74,328.9,0.27,0.88,0.16
145,529,38,49,40,1241.8,0.07,0.89,337.3,0.24,0.81,0.16
146,504,43,44,43,1164.2,0.09,0.99,325.3,0.26,0.84,0.17
147,526,33,48,45,1190.3,0.06,0.75,337.8,0.24,0.81,0.15
148,614,41,54,50,1154.6,0.07,0.77,345.7,0.24,0.82,0.15
149,713,44,57,71,1198.6,0.06,0.74,332.9,0.24,0.8,0.14
150,670,42,54,51,1238.6,0.06,0.78,343.7,0.22,0.75,0.14
151,741,44,55,63,1402.7,0.06,0.83,359,0.22,0.78,0.13
152,698,64,51,63,1316.9,0.09,1.21,338.5,0.26,0.86,0.16
153,677,34,62,62,1425,0.05,0.72,352.4,0.23,0.82,0.14
154,519,18,42,52,1750,0.03,0.61,371.2,0.22,0.8,0.12
155,496,21,49,47,1490,0.04,0.63,362.3,0.24,0.85,0.14
156,473,14,34,39,1397.9,0.03,0.41,361.4,0.18,0.66,0.1
157,446,26,27,34,1558.8,0.06,0.91,350.6,0.2,0.68,0.12
158,366,22,25,32,1706.8,0.06,1.03,373.2,0.22,0.81,0.13
159,312,14,23,28,1445.7,0.04,0.65,358.5,0.21,0.75,0.12

160,168,10,12,16,1973,0.06,1.17,396.3,0.23,0.9,0.13
161,172,6,9,27,1463.3,0.03,0.51,358.3,0.24,0.88,0.09
162,126,8,6,10,1785,0.06,1.13,430,0.19,0.82,0.11
163,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
166,2,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0

 

 

●コンピ7〜9位のS12別成績 
y31_1518_s12nc79
S12,頭数,1着,2着,3着,単配,単率,単回,複配,複率,複回,連率
131,6,0,1,2,0,0,0,356.7,0.5,1.78,0.17
132,21,2,1,4,1725,0.1,1.64,484.3,0.33,1.61,0.14
133,63,4,6,5,2150,0.06,1.37,462,0.24,1.1,0.16
134,60,3,2,6,1190,0.05,0.6,455.5,0.18,0.84,0.08
135,129,9,7,7,2073.3,0.07,1.45,569.1,0.18,1.01,0.12
136,165,10,9,12,1522,0.06,0.92,446.1,0.19,0.84,0.12
137,222,9,9,15,1171.1,0.04,0.47,435.5,0.15,0.65,0.08
138,194,7,13,9,1552.9,0.04,0.56,449,0.15,0.67,0.1
139,312,10,13,23,1532,0.03,0.49,491.1,0.15,0.72,0.07
140,322,12,12,27,1869.2,0.04,0.7,511.8,0.16,0.81,0.07
141,486,28,39,28,2170,0.06,1.25,541.2,0.2,1.06,0.14
142,465,18,32,35,1880,0.04,0.73,525.1,0.18,0.96,0.11
143,593,15,24,41,1717.3,0.03,0.43,509.5,0.13,0.69,0.07

144,668,37,31,42,2033.5,0.06,1.13,569.1,0.16,0.94,0.1
145,792,27,39,53,1897.8,0.03,0.65,561.7,0.15,0.84,0.08
146,758,36,31,50,2058.6,0.05,0.98,580,0.15,0.9,0.09
147,787,33,28,47,1852.7,0.04,0.78,531.7,0.14,0.73,0.08
148,920,28,37,64,2686.8,0.03,0.82,576.5,0.14,0.81,0.07
149,1069,34,51,58,2751.2,0.03,0.88,612.9,0.13,0.82,0.08
150,1008,38,53,67,2454.2,0.04,0.93,577.3,0.16,0.9,0.09
151,1110,30,49,54,2162,0.03,0.58,556.9,0.12,0.67,0.07
152,1053,25,50,65,2437.6,0.02,0.58,605.2,0.13,0.8,0.07
153,1014,31,42,51,2735.2,0.03,0.84,564.4,0.12,0.69,0.07
154,779,21,25,38,2173.3,0.03,0.59,579.6,0.11,0.63,0.06
155,745,20,35,45,2444,0.03,0.66,621.8,0.13,0.83,0.07
156,711,14,31,34,2420,0.02,0.48,664.2,0.11,0.74,0.06
157,666,16,27,34,2705.6,0.02,0.65,636,0.12,0.74,0.06
158,547,15,28,26,3099.3,0.03,0.85,752.6,0.13,0.95,0.08
159,466,12,18,32,4655.8,0.03,1.2,648.2,0.13,0.86,0.06

160,252,1,12,9,2560,0,0.1,630.9,0.09,0.55,0.05
161,257,2,12,11,3335,0.01,0.26,655.2,0.1,0.64,0.05
162,188,7,9,10,2780,0.04,1.04,627.7,0.14,0.87,0.09
163,3,0,0,1,0,0,0,1520,0.33,5.07,0
166,3,1,0,0,3850,0.33,12.83,680,0.33,2.27,0.33

 

 

●コンピ10〜12位のS12別成績 
y31_1518_s12nc1012
S12,頭数,1着,2着,3着,単配,単率,単回,複配,複率,複回,連率
131,6,1,0,0,1710,0.17,2.85,580,0.17,0.97,0.17
132,21,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
133,63,5,3,3,3872,0.08,3.07,844.5,0.17,1.47,0.13
134,60,2,3,0,4310,0.03,1.44,780,0.08,0.65,0.08
135,129,5,8,5,5052,0.04,1.96,823.9,0.14,1.15,0.1
136,164,7,7,7,2347.1,0.04,1,758.1,0.13,0.97,0.09
137,222,4,5,13,2007.5,0.02,0.36,780.9,0.1,0.77,0.04
138,195,3,3,4,7666.7,0.02,1.18,1180,0.05,0.61,0.03
139,311,1,11,11,7600,0,0.24,1060.9,0.07,0.78,0.04
140,324,4,9,12,2612.5,0.01,0.32,922.8,0.08,0.71,0.04
141,487,11,14,14,6027.3,0.02,1.36,1213.6,0.08,0.97,0.05
142,465,13,7,15,3485.4,0.03,0.97,910.9,0.08,0.69,0.04
143,592,16,18,27,3436.2,0.03,0.93,962.3,0.1,0.99,0.06

144,665,12,25,22,3985.8,0.02,0.72,1049.5,0.09,0.93,0.06
145,794,12,22,27,3152.5,0.02,0.48,1005.6,0.08,0.77,0.04
146,758,10,23,22,3391,0.01,0.45,1020.9,0.07,0.74,0.04
147,786,19,18,19,4447.9,0.02,1.08,894.5,0.07,0.64,0.05
148,921,24,20,26,5035,0.03,1.31,1069.3,0.08,0.81,0.05
149,1065,19,20,45,5202.1,0.02,0.93,1168.8,0.08,0.92,0.04
150,1006,16,27,31,4355,0.02,0.69,1047.6,0.07,0.77,0.04
151,1111,20,24,36,5429,0.02,0.98,1089.9,0.07,0.78,0.04
152,1053,12,23,29,4688.3,0.01,0.53,1058.9,0.06,0.64,0.03
153,1014,13,25,36,6428.5,0.01,0.82,1013.9,0.07,0.74,0.04
154,783,8,16,23,6020,0.01,0.62,1030.6,0.06,0.62,0.03
155,746,6,16,23,10123.3,0.01,0.81,1291.1,0.06,0.78,0.03
156,708,9,12,14,9775.6,0.01,1.24,1264.3,0.05,0.62,0.03
157,666,8,16,17,5628.8,0.01,0.68,988,0.06,0.61,0.04
158,548,6,8,14,8685,0.01,0.95,1057.5,0.05,0.54,0.03
159,467,4,10,17,5147.5,0.01,0.44,1346.8,0.07,0.89,0.03

160,251,2,6,9,3640,0.01,0.29,1467.6,0.07,0.99,0.03
161,257,4,5,7,10842.5,0.02,1.69,1083.1,0.06,0.67,0.04
162,189,4,1,5,5735,0.02,1.21,1118,0.05,0.59,0.03
163,3,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
166,3,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0

勝ち馬を探すな!【桜星男の単勝A】 2008/06/20配信分

----------------------------------------------------------------------
☆ S12(一騎打ち指数) 多頭数(出走頭数15〜18頭)

 

  【S12が159〜166(MAX)】         
----------------------------------------------------------------------
※特に断りが無い場合、分析に使用しているデータは、
 指数統一後3年間(2005年4月〜2008年3月:y31)です。

 

 

 S12の指数帯が最大値の159〜166はコンピ上では一騎打ち状態と
言えます。各順位の成績は以下の通り。

 

y31_1518_s12ov159
NC,頭数,1着,2着,3着,単配,単率,単回,複配,複率,複回,連率
1,390,142,109,44,207.6,0.36,0.76,119.2,0.76,0.9,0.64
2,391,106,83,57,352.3,0.27,0.95,138.4,0.63,0.87,0.48
3,391,37,35,55,749.2,0.09,0.71,218.6,0.32,0.71,0.18
4,390,26,33,39,1165.8,0.07,0.78,283.4,0.25,0.71,0.15
5,391,20,30,45,1469,0.05,0.75,340.3,0.24,0.83,0.13
6,391,18,20,36,1869.4,0.05,0.86,424.3,0.19,0.8,0.1
7,389,11,20,26,2987.3,0.03,0.84,497,0.15,0.73,0.08
8,391,6,16,20,3810,0.02,0.58,641.4,0.11,0.69,0.06
9,389,6,15,17,5448.3,0.02,0.84,886.8,0.1,0.87,0.05
10,390,5,5,16,3818,0.01,0.49,938.1,0.07,0.63,0.03
11,390,4,13,12,8590,0.01,0.88,1579.7,0.07,1.17,0.04
12,390,5,4,10,8146,0.01,1.04,1316.3,0.05,0.64,0.02
13,391,1,4,1,14750,0,0.38,2060,0.02,0.32,0.01
14,389,3,2,8,23000,0.01,1.77,3128.5,0.03,1.05,0.01

15,390,1,1,5,10200,0,0.26,1715.7,0.02,0.31,0.01
16,279,0,1,0,0,0,0,2500,0,0.09,0
17,62,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
18,52,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0

 

 1位は単勝率36%と一般の1位より単勝率が高いですが、平均配当208
円と基本的に過剰なため単勝回収率は76%しかありません。その分2位に
妙味があり単勝率27%で回収率は95%と馬券的には有利なポジションと
なります。

 

 また、一騎打ち状態ではありますが、1−2位の決着率は馬連で27%、
ワイドで46%しかありません。ここの捉え方は人様々ですが、
○1−2位を増額法により利益を出す
○1・2位から下位へ流して穴を狙う
の二つが考えられます。私は増額は嫌いですので後者の選択となりますが。

 

 このパターンの馬券詳細は以下の通り。

 

●馬連
y31_1518_s12ov159_ur
馬連,的中数,配当合計,的中率,回収率,配当平均,馬券数
103,36,25190,0.09,0.65,699.7,390
104,30,30860,0.08,0.79,1028.7,389
105,20,30190,0.05,0.77,1509.5,390
106,14,28270,0.04,0.72,2019.3,390
107,16,36190,0.04,0.93,2261.9,388
108,11,38240,0.03,0.98,3476.4,390
109,6,26270,0.02,0.68,4378.3,388
110,3,10370,0.01,0.27,3456.7,389
111,8,116460,0.02,2.99,14557.5,389
112,1,8090,0,0.21,8090,389
113,1,13590,0,0.35,13590,390
203,16,22730,0.04,0.58,1420.6,391
204,14,26830,0.04,0.69,1916.4,390

205,13,43410,0.03,1.11,3339.2,391
206,5,19040,0.01,0.49,3808,391
207,9,37620,0.02,0.97,4180,389
208,8,39270,0.02,1,4908.8,391
209,6,53300,0.02,1.37,8883.3,389
210,3,40250,0.01,1.03,13416.7,390
211,5,54960,0.01,1.41,10992,390
212,3,44110,0.01,1.13,14703.3,390
213,2,44420,0.01,1.14,22210,391
,230,,,,,

 

●馬単
y31_1518_s12ov159_ut
馬単,的中数,配当合計,的中率,回収率,配当平均,馬券数
103,18,18610,0.05,0.48,1033.9,390
104,17,22080,0.04,0.57,1298.8,389
105,12,22040,0.03,0.57,1836.7,390
106,8,23810,0.02,0.61,2976.2,390
107,8,23190,0.02,0.6,2898.8,388
108,8,37550,0.02,0.96,4693.8,390
109,6,35550,0.02,0.92,5925,388
110,2,7860,0.01,0.2,3930,389
111,7,145760,0.02,3.75,20822.9,389
112,0,0,0,0,0,389
113,0,0,0,0,0,390
203,8,20760,0.02,0.53,2595,391
204,6,26410,0.02,0.68,4401.7,390

205,10,60910,0.03,1.56,6091,391
206,4,28570,0.01,0.73,7142.5,391
207,8,50950,0.02,1.31,6368.8,389
208,5,47680,0.01,1.22,9536,391
209,5,55930,0.01,1.44,11186,389
210,3,60290,0.01,1.55,20096.7,390
211,4,57860,0.01,1.48,14465,390
212,1,14720,0,0.38,14720,390
213,2,65470,0.01,1.67,32735,391
301,18,34170,0.05,0.88,1898.3,390
302,8,23400,0.02,0.6,2925,391
401,13,40810,0.03,1.05,3139.2,389
402,8,30010,0.02,0.77,3751.2,390
501,8,44420,0.02,1.14,5552.5,390
502,3,11220,0.01,0.29,3740,391
601,6,38170,0.02,0.98,6361.7,390

602,1,6630,0,0.17,6630,391
701,8,67710,0.02,1.75,8463.8,388
702,1,12670,0,0.33,12670,389
801,3,38800,0.01,0.99,12933.3,390
802,3,29560,0.01,0.76,9853.3,391
901,0,0,0,0,0,388
902,1,36740,0,0.94,36740,389
1001,1,11270,0,0.29,11270,389
1002,0,0,0,0,0,390
1101,1,39900,0,1.03,39900,389
1102,1,52270,0,1.34,52270,390
1201,1,41200,0,1.06,41200,389
1202,2,106680,0.01,2.74,53340,390
1301,1,46450,0,1.19,46450,390
1302,0,0,0,0,0,391
,230,,,,,

 

●3連複
y31_1518_s12ov159_srf
3連複,的中数,配当合計,的中率,回収率,配当平均,馬券数
10203,40,27160,0.1,0.7,679,390
10204,30,32790,0.08,0.84,1093,389
10205,29,39230,0.07,1.01,1352.8,390
10206,18,31640,0.05,0.81,1757.8,390
10207,20,41740,0.05,1.08,2087,388
10208,14,44940,0.04,1.15,3210,390
10209,6,31340,0.02,0.81,5223.3,388
10210,5,44030,0.01,1.13,8806,389
10211,8,45650,0.02,1.17,5706.2,389
10212,5,30070,0.01,0.77,6014,389
10213,2,17380,0.01,0.45,8690,390
,177,,,,,

 

 

●各馬券
フォーメーションは(1・2)−(3〜13)
3連は(1・2)−(1・2)−(3〜13)
y31_1518_s12ov159_total
馬券,R,点数,的中,配計,回率,的率,R的率,点平,配平
馬連,391,8575,230,789660,0.92,0.03,0.59,21.9,3433.3
馬単(順),391,8575,142,826000,0.96,0.02,0.36,21.9,5816.9
馬単(逆),391,8575,88,712080,0.83,0.01,0.23,21.9,8091.8
ワイド,391,8575,705,718640,0.84,0.08,0.92,21.9,1019.3
3連複,390,4282,177,385970,0.9,0.04,0.45,11,2180.6
3連単,105,2306,24,182990,0.79,0.01,0.23,22,7624.6

 

 紐を3位から13位としているので回収率は100%を超えませんが、
まあ、そこそこの成績です。

 

 基本的な穴となる紐7位〜12位とした場合は、
●各馬券(基本フォーメーション)
フォーメーションは(1・2)−(7〜12)
3連は(1・2)−(1・2)−(7〜12)
y31_1518_s12ov159_totalB
馬券,R,点数,的中,配計,回率,的率,R的率,点平,配平
馬連,391,4672,79,505130,1.08,0.02,0.2,11.9,6394.1
馬単(順),391,4672,57,537340,1.15,0.01,0.15,11.9,9427
馬単(逆),391,4672,22,436800,0.93,0,0.06,11.9,19854.5
ワイド,391,4672,238,439330,0.94,0.05,0.42,11.9,1845.9
3連複,390,2333,58,237770,1.02,0.02,0.15,6,4099.5
3連単,105,1258,5,88750,0.71,0,0.05,12,17750

 

 となります。馬券固有の妙味から、回収率は馬単の順目が有利となります。
逆目は(8位→1位など)来た時のインパクトが強いのですが、長期的な
スパンではあまり利口な馬券とは言えないと考えています。

 

 「2頭で堅い」というイメージから連馬券は1−2位に票が集中しやすい
ので、この集中ゾーンを外して下位へ流し妙味を求める、というのがベター
と考えます。

 

 このケースでは、単勝で見たように2位に軸馬としての妙味があります。
●2−(7〜12)
 馬連  回収率115% 的中率9%  配当平均7927円
 馬単順 回収率123% 的中率7%  配当平均11055円
 馬単逆 回収率102% 的中率2%  配当平均29740円
 ワイド 回収率99%  的中率26% 配当平均2154円

 

 単勝過剰傾向にある1位からは、
●1−(7〜12)
 馬連  回収率101% 的中率12% 配当平均5236円
 馬単順 回収率107% 的中率8%  配当平均8062円
 馬単逆 回収率 85% 的中率4%  配当平均14206円
 ワイド 回収率 90% 的中率31% 配当平均1595円

 

 と2位を軸とした場合より的中率は上回りますが、過剰傾向のために回収
率では2位に劣ります。押さえ程度というところでしょう。

 

 

 

 さて、実戦編と行きましょう。

 

 S12が159〜166という一騎打ち状態において、2位が単勝オッズ
2.5倍以下と売れた場合は、各馬券はどのようになるのでしょうか。

 

y31_1518_s12ov159_nc2od25un
NC,頭数,1着,2着,3着,単配,単率,単回,複配,複率,複回,連率
1,58,17,25,6,294.7,0.29,0.86,127.5,0.83,1.06,0.72
2,59,25,10,9,219.6,0.42,0.93,116.6,0.75,0.87,0.59
3,59,5,3,11,710,0.08,0.6,208.4,0.32,0.67,0.14
4,59,2,5,7,1475,0.03,0.5,277.1,0.24,0.66,0.12
5,59,3,2,7,1236.7,0.05,0.63,325.8,0.2,0.66,0.08
6,59,2,1,5,3015,0.03,1.02,446.2,0.14,0.61,0.05
7,59,3,3,6,2266.7,0.05,1.15,469.2,0.2,0.95,0.1
8,59,1,3,3,2890,0.02,0.49,507.1,0.12,0.6,0.07
9,59,1,4,2,4970,0.02,0.84,932.9,0.12,1.11,0.08
10,59,0,0,1,0,0,0,900,0.02,0.15,0
11,59,0,2,1,0,0,0,2583.3,0.05,1.31,0.03
12,58,0,1,1,0,0,0,3290,0.03,1.13,0.02
13,59,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
14,59,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0

15,59,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
16,47,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
17,9,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
18,8,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0

 

 2位が2.5倍以下となった場合は、だいたい1番人気となるようです。
1位の単率29%配当295円に対して2位の単率は42%と逆転します。
が、そもそもが売れてしまっているため平均配当220円で回収率93%
となります(単回収率はむしろ低下していることに注意)。

 

 また、この場合の注目すべき点は、売れた2位の単率は1位を上回ります
が、複勝率、連対率はあくまで1位が優位であり逆転してはいないというこ
とです。2位が売れたお陰で1位の複勝回収率は106%となっています。

 

 この場合の1−2位の組み合わせは、
馬連  的中率40% 回収率104%
ワイド 的中率60% 回収率95%

 

 とかなり一騎打ちっぽくなって来ます。2位が売れるほど一騎打ち状態と
なって行くとの捉えで良いでしょう。ちなみに馬単は単率の良い2→1で、
的中率29% 回収率137% 平均配当466円 となっています。

 

 堅いレースにだけぶち込む、という評論家のような人がいますが、これを
見る限りではあながち間違いではないでしょうね。的中率も良くプライドも
満たされて良い馬券ではないかと思います。

 

 さて、穴馬券はどうでしょうか?。

 

●各馬券(基本フォーメーション)
フォーメーションは(1・2)−(7〜12)
3連は(1・2)−(1・2)−(7〜12)
y31_1518_s12ov159nc2od25_totalB
馬券,R,点数,的中,配計,回率,的率,R的率,点平,配平
馬連,59,700,16,117460,1.68,0.02,0.27,11.9,7341.2
馬単(順),59,700,12,147080,2.1,0.02,0.2,11.9,12256.7
馬単(逆),59,700,4,35360,0.51,0.01,0.07,11.9,8840
ワイド,59,700,45,85060,1.22,0.06,0.51,11.9,1890.2
3連複,58,347,14,50400,1.45,0.04,0.24,6,3600
3連単,8,96,1,3580,0.37,0.01,0.12,12,3580

 

※3位を第2軸としてフォロー
(1・2)−(1〜3)−(7〜12)
3連複,59,1047,21,223470,2.13,0.02,0.36,17.7,10641.4
3連単,9,198,1,3580,0.18,0.01,0.11,22,3580

 

 2位が単勝オッズ2.5倍以下となるほど売れて一騎打ち傾向が強まると
たしかにその通り1−2位の決着率は高くなります。それに応じて票が集中
します。多くの人が「この2頭で決まるだろう」と考えます。しかしそれは
たかだか50%程度。この集中ゾーンを外した馬券には配当妙味が生まれま
す。

 

 また、2位が票を集めることで1位に配当妙味が生まれます。前述したよ
うに単勝では2位に譲りますが、複勝・連対率から明らかに1位が軸馬とし
て優位に立ちます。結果(1・2)−(7〜12)では、

 

 馬連  回収率168% 的中率27% 
 馬単順 回収率210% 的中率20%
 ワイド 回収率122% 的中率51% 

 

 というパフォーマンスが生まれています。

 

 

 

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